By Kelly Maue
It’s often referred to as “the earthquake that wasn’t.” December 3, 1990, marks the day climate consultant Iben Browning predicted a major earthquake on the New Madrid Fault in southern Missouri. The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) is in the central Mississippi Valley, near the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. The 150-mile-long fault zone spans five states, including Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Illinois.
While Browning’s forecast created a media frenzy, thankfully, there was no big news to report that day.
But by that time, Browning claimed to have successfully predicted two other events: the eruption of Mount St. Helens in 1980 and the Loma Prieta earthquake near San Francisco in 1989. People close to him backed him up on these claims, so it was newsworthy when Browning forecasted another cataclysmic event with such pinpoint timing. While seismologists largely ignored him, the media did not, and his prophecy gained traction. Schools in four states canceled classes, businesses gave employees time off to prepare, and the Red Cross gave out over 200,000 earthquake preparedness kits. Other worried residents decided to leave the area altogether.
The highly anticipated day came and went. And while 1990 remained relatively quiet, the New Madrid area is the site of the largest earthquakes in US history. Not one, but a series of earthquakes hit the area from 1811-1812. The biggest one occurred on February 7, 1812, with a magnitude of 8.8 on the Richter scale. Believe it or not, it was widely reported that it caused the Mississippi River to run backward for several hours, and witnesses say it rang church bells in Philadelphia. People felt the effects as far away as Canada in the north and the Gulf Coast in the south.
Other earthquake-prone areas in the US include Alaska and California. However, due to geologic differences in the earth’s crust, earthquakes in the NMSZ affect a wider area than comparable quakes out West. Because of this, the 1811-1812 quakes affected 10 times as much area as the infamous 1906 San Francisco earthquake.
The New Madrid Fault runs from St. Louis to Memphis and averages over 200 measured seismic events yearly, but only a few are strong enough to notice. In the years since Browning’s fame, a large earthquake has not occurred in the NMSZ. A small one happened near Risco, Missouri, in 1991 and registered 4.5. It was noticeable but caused little property damage.
As critics of Iben Browning asserted in 1990, there is no way to predict an earthquake – but the genuine chance of another major earthquake remains. This zone is the country’s second most active fault, and the US Geological Survey estimates the region has a very real chance of a magnitude 6.0 or higher earthquake in the future. The (non) event of 1990 may have increased awareness at the time. But on the other hand, it may have made others less likely to believe the risk is real.
